Ukraine can hold the front line despite Trump military aid freeze — but only until summer, Kyiv officials warn
Ukraine forces can hold their own against the Russian invasion despite President Trump’s order to halt military aid — but only until the summer, Kyiv officials warn as they try to mend ties with the US.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Tuesday that his forces were well equipped to fend off the advancing Russian army, with Kyiv doing all it can to ramp up its own military production, especially drones.
But the lack of ammunition and air-defense systems will eventually hit the war-torn country hard, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official estimating that its American supplies will run dry after just “two or three months.”
“After that, it will be very difficult for us,” the official told the Financial Times. “It will not be a total collapse, but we will be forced to withdraw from areas more quickly.”
A shockwave shook Kyiv on Monday night after President Trump announced a decision to suspend military aid to Kyiv just three days after his disastrous Oval Office conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The White House said it was “pausing and reviewing” its military aid, confirming that the pause was a result of Friday’s debacle.
It remains to be seen just how much Trump’s freeze will affect Ukraine as the nation has pushed for more self-reliance and support from Europe, but the US is still the largest aid supplier to Kyiv, giving more than $66 billion in military assistance since the 2022 start of the war, according to the State Department.
“The impact is generally hard to gauge… because Ukraine is far less dependent on direct US military assistance now,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment.
A lack of anti-aircraft and counter-missile ammunition plagued Ukraine’s forces during the stall of US aid last year, and the issue is likely to repeat itself if the Trump freeze continues.
Shmyhal warned that US Patriot batteries remain Kyiv’s only defense against Russian ballistic missiles aimed at its cities — the lack of American support paving the way for Moscow to continue leveling Ukraine.
Pavlo Narozhny, a Ukrainian military analyst and co-founder of Reactive Post, said Kyiv also has “no real substitute” for America’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which were approved to use against Russia last year.
Even a temporary shortfall could force Ukraine to make difficult decisions on what it will prioritize to defend as a means to preserve ammo, warned Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst monitoring the war for the Finland-based Black Bird Group.
“Do you defend an airfield, or a power plant, or a factory making weapons?” he told the FT.
Kyiv is currently scrambling to mend its relationship with Trump, with Zelensky describing Friday’s meeting as “regrettable.”
“None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible … Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians,” Zelenskiy said.
“My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts,” he added.
With Post wires
