Trump tariff battle with Canada, Mexico, China and Europe points to early winners, losers
President Trump is locked in a tit-for-tat tariff war with Canada, Mexico, the European Union and China in a bid to remake the US economy for the long term – and some early winners and losers have already emerged.
Among the projected early winners are domestic US steel and aluminum manufacturers, like US Steel and Cleveland Cliffs, which are expected to benefit after Trump slapped a blanket 25% levy on the key materials.
Century Aluminum, the US’s largest primary aluminum producer, said Trump’s tariffs would “help drive the resurgence of domestic aluminum production.”
The cost of hot rolled coil, a measure of steel prices, surged to $945 per short ton on Wednesday – the highest since February 2024. Aluminum costs surged by a record 45 cents per pound on Tuesday to more than $990 per metric ton.
With imported products set to be slammed by price hikes, domestically produced goods also stand to benefit. Anheuser-Busch’s C-suite sees the tariffs as “bullish” for its prospects, The Post previously reported. The company’s stock has surged 24% so far this year.
The Bud Light and Michelob maker is far better positioned than some of its key rivals – thanks in large part to a robust domestic supply chain. The company says 99% of the beer it sells within the US is brewed in the states, and 99% of the ingredients are sourced from American farmers.
“Another big winner is [going to] be anybody who owns warehouse space in the United States, because you have builders and automakers and, I mean, everybody is stockpiling like crazy,” said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute.
Trump tariff winners and losers
| US steel/aluminum producers (US Steel, Cleveland Cliffs) A 25% tariff on foreign imports will boost demand for domestic suppliers. |
US automakers (GM, Ford, Tesla) One estimate said the average cost of manufacturing a car will rise by $400 if the tariffs hold. |
| Anheuser Busch The Bud Light maker sources and brews its beer in the states – and should dodge price pressures that will hammer foreign rivals. |
Wall Street/US stocks The tech-heavy Nasdaq is especially hard-hit, falling more than 2,300 points in the last 30 days. The S&P entered a correction after losing more than 10% of recent high. |
| US software firms (Palantir) Unlike hardware makers like Apple, AI and software suppliers like Palantir avoid the worst of the tariffs. |
Apple The iPhone maker’s supply chain is closely tied to China and subject to 20% tariffs. |
| Warehouse owners US firms are stockpiling resources – and all those materials need storage space. |
Wine/liquor industry Europe and Canada have each teed up tariffs on American whiskey – while US tariffs on imported wine and champagne could push prices up hundreds of dollars at retail stores. |
| Gold/silver prices Precious metals, which are seen as a hedge against economic uncertainty, have swelled in value during the trade battle. |
California almond producers More than one-third of the state’s almonds are exported to Europe – which is eyeing reciprocal tariffs. |
The US software sector also is notably “not exposed” to the tariffs, said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who pointed to IBM, Oracle, Microsoft, Salesforce and AI defense firm Palantir as likely beneficiaries.
“Palantir is one that stands out because they’re very heavily US-focused,” said Ives. “More and more spending in the US on technology, and especially when it comes to their AI tech, you can actually see them benefit.”
Meanwhile, gold prices surged nearly 13% since the start of the year, surpassing more than $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever on Friday. The precious metal is traditionally seen as a store of value during periods of economic uncertainty. Elsewhere, the price of silver has swelled nearly 14% to $34 per ounce since Jan. 1.
So far, Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on most imports from Mexico and Canada, with a lower 10% rate for energy and fertilizer – though the president later agreed to delay penalties for items that comply with the USMCA trade treaty. Separately, he slapped a 20% levy on goods imported from China.
“I do think that these are an initial negotiation strategy,” said Brandon Daniels, CEO of supply chain software firm Exiger. “You’re seeing the United States creating broad-based significant tariffs that then require all countries to come to the table.”
Trump also has vowed to impose a whopping 200% tariff on imports of wine, Champagne and other alcohol made in the European Union. The president said the move would be made in response to the EU’s imposition of a 50% tariff on US-made whiskey.
The proposed 200% tariff is already causing a run on champagne, Bordeaux and Burgundy wines, The Post has learned.
“Panic buying is in full effect this week,” Daniel Posner, owner of Grapes The Wine Company store in White Plains, N.Y., told The Post.
“People are taking this threat seriously.”
Posner sold out of the wines he promoted in his daily email blast to customers – which included the pre- and post-tariff price – on Thursday and Friday in less than an hour.
A 2016 Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux bottle that costs $109 today would spike to $375 with a 200% tariff, while a 2022 Chateau Smith Haut Lafitte Pessac Leognan bottle that costs $159 today would go up to $447, according to the email blasts.
Posner expected to sell between 30 and 40 of the 2022 vintage, but 60 orders poured in and his team is scrambling to secure more bottles.
Producers of California almonds — more than one-third of which are shipped to Europe — could also take a major hit.
Canada has already imposed retaliatory tariffs on $21 billion worth of US-made goods, including everything from farm products to American-made whiskey and other liquor. Some reports said Canadian retailers were pulling Tennessee whiskey from their shelves entirely to protest Trump’s behavior.
The escalating trade war could spell trouble for US-based automakers – including Elon Musk’s Tesla. The pioneering electric vehicle company has slumped by a whopping 36% since the start of the year – a decline that critics have linked to Musk’s focus on work with the Department of Government efficiency.
US-based automakers like General Motors, Ford and Stellanis are in the “eye of the storm” as tariffs hit nearly every facet of their supply chains – from material sourcing and production to sales.
The average cost of manufacturing a vehicle could swell by $400 per car if the tariffs are left in place, according to research by Barclays.
“They get hit from all different sides, from Canada, Mexico and China,” added Ives.
In a letter to the US Trade Representative’s office dated Tuesday, Tesla warned it could be “exposed” to “disproportionate impacts” from retaliatory tariffs. The company asked the US to carefully weigh trade policies to ensure they don’t “inadvertently harm US companies.”
Embattled US construction companies and other reliant on raw materials like lumber or byproducts like nails and sheet metal could also be in trouble.
Tech giant Apple, which manufactures the vast majority of its hardware in China, is set to take a major hit from tariff-related hikes unless CEO Tim Cook is able to secure an exemption from Trump. The iPhone maker’s stock is down 13% since Jan. 1.
“We’ve seen it in the past and it’s well-understood that if Apple ever incurred tariffs that would be a game changer to many parts of the tech ecosystem,” said Ives, who estimated it would take Apple three to five years and $20 billion to move even 15% of its supply chain to the US.
The multi-front dispute has spooked Wall Street, with large-cap stocks in the tech sector among the hardest hit. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index has plunged more than 2,300 points, or nearly 12%, over the last 30 days as the tariff dispute escalates.
The broad-based S&P 500 has fallen about 250 points or 4% over the same period, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 1,000 points or 2.4%.
The president and his allies have brushed off concerns about the recent plunge in the US stock market, arguing the short-term pain is necessary to level the international playing field and ensure a vibrant American economy with fair trade deals, rebalanced trade deals and revitalized domestic manufacturing.
“We’re focused on the real economy. Can we create an environment where there are long-term gains in the market and long-term gains for the American people?” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during an appearance on CNBC. “I’m not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks.”
